Jim Garamone at the DoD News
offers the below piece:
WASHINGTON, Feb. 13, 2018 —
It’s a measure of the growth of cyber and America’s vulnerability to it that
the cyber threat was at the top of the list of worldwide threats the director
of national intelligence chose to highlight at a Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence hearing today.
Daniel Coats (seen in the above photo) also covered Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and terrorism, but
he led with the cyberwar that nations, organizations and sometimes individuals
are fighting against the United States.
“We face a complex, volatile
and challenging threat environment,” Coats told the senators. “The risk of
interstate conflict is higher than any time since the end of the Cold War --
all the more alarming because of the growing development and use of weapons of
mass destruction by state and nonstate actors. Our adversaries, as well as the
other malign actors, are using cyber and other instruments of power to shape
societies and markets, international rules and institutions, and international
hotspots to their advantage.”
Competition for Technological
Superiority
The United States is in
competition for technological superiority, Coats said, noting that adversaries
“seek to sow division in the United States and weaken U.S. leadership.”
Nonstate actors, which
include terrorists and criminal syndicates, exploit weak state capacity in
Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Latin America, to cause instability and
violence within states and among states. A part of many of these malign actors
is their use of cyber, the nation’s top intelligence official said. “Frankly,
the United States is under attack -- under attack by entities that are using
cyber to penetrate virtually every major action that takes place in the United
States,” Coats told the panel. “From U.S. businesses, to the federal government,
to state and local governments, the United States is threatened by cyberattacks
every day.” Russia, China, Iran and North Korea pose the greatest cyber
threats, he said, but others use cyber operations to achieve strategic and
malign objectives.
“Some of these actors,
including Russia, are likely to pursue even more aggressive cyberattacks with
the intent of degrading our democratic values and weakening our alliances,” the
intelligence chief said. “Persistent and disruptive cyber operations will continue
against the United States and our European allies, using elections as
opportunities to undermine democracy, sow discord and undermine our values.”
Other Threats
China also uses cyber to
enable espionage and attack capabilities to support its national security and
economic priorities, Coats said. “Iran will try to penetrate U.S. and allied
networks for espionage and lay the groundwork for future cyberattacks,” he
added. “And North Korea will continue to use cyber operations to raise funds,
launch attacks and gather intelligence against the United States.”
Weapons of mass destruction
is No. 2 on Coats’ list of threats. “Overall, state efforts to modernize,
develop or acquire WMD, their delivery systems or the underlying technologies
constitute a major threat to the United States and to our allies,” he said.
Coats called North Korea the
most volatile and confrontational threat. “In addition to its ballistic missile
tests and growing number of nuclear warheads for these missiles, North Korea
will continue its longstanding chemical and biological warfare programs, also,”
he told the senators.
Russia and China are
expanding and modernizing their WMD arsenals, he said. “Iran's implementation
of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the JCPOA, has extended the time it
would take to develop a nuclear weapon from several months to about a year,
provided Iran continues to adhere to the deal’s major provisions,” he added.
Pakistan is developing new
types of short-range tactical nuclear weapons, Coats said, and Syria has used
chemical weapons in its civil war. Nonstate actors would love to get their
hands on chemical weapons and are trying to get biological weapons, he pointed
out.
The Terrorism Threat
Terrorism remains a threat
and runs the gamut from ISIS and al-Qaida to Lebanese Hezbollah and other
affiliated terrorist organizations. Iran is a major state sponsor of terror
groups.
The United States is not
immune, Coats said, noting that individuals have “self-radicalized” and
launched attacks against their fellow citizens.
“ISIS' claim to having a
functioning caliphate that governs populations is all but thwarted,” Coats
said. “However, ISIS remains a threat and will likely focus on regrouping in
Iraq and Syria, particularly in ungoverned portions of those countries,
enhancing its global presence, championing its cause, planning international
attacks and encouraging members and sympathizers to attack their home
countries.”
Al-Qaida also will remain a
threat, Coats said, telling the senators that the organization remains intent
on attacking the United States and U.S. interests abroad.
The Space Domain
Space is another combat
domain now, and Russia and China will continue to expand their space-based reconnaissance,
communications and navigation systems in terms of numbers of satellites,
breadth of capability and applications for use, the director said. “Both Russia
and Chinese counter-space weapons will mature over the next few years as each
country pursues antisatellite weapons as a means to reduce U.S. and allied
military effectiveness and perceptions of U.S. military advantage in space,” he
told the panel.
Russia is using a variety of
capabilities short of war to assert its presence, Coats said. “President
[Vladimir] Putin will continue to rely on assertive foreign policies to shape
outcomes beyond Russia's borders,” he added. “Putin will resort to more
authoritarian tactics to maintain control amid challenges to his rule.
Russia uses these tools – including
the cyber weapon – because “it's relatively cheap, it's low risk, it offers
what they perceive as plausible deniability and it's proven to be effective at
sowing division,” he said. “We expect Russia to continue using propaganda,
social media, false flag personas, sympathetic spokesmen and other means to
influence, to try to build on its wide range of operations and exacerbate
social and political fissures in the United States,” he added.
The director said Russia sees
past actions against the United States as successful and that it views the 2018
U.S. midterm elections as a potential target for Russian influence operations.
China also is seeking to
expand its regional influence and to globally shape events and outcomes, Coats
said. “It will take a firm stance on its claims to the East China Sea and South
China Sea, its relations with Taiwan and its regional economic engagement,” he
told the senators.
China also intends to use its
"One Belt, One Road" initiative to increase its reach to geostrategic
locations across Eurasia, Africa and the Pacific, he said.
In Afghanistan, the capital
city of Kabul continues to bear the brunt of the Taliban-led insurgency, as
demonstrated by recent attacks in the city. “Afghan national security forces
face unsteady performance, but with coalition support, probably will maintain
control of most major population centers,” the director said. “Complicating the
Afghanistan situation, however, is our assessment that Pakistan-based militant
groups continue to take advantage of their safe haven to conduct attacks in
India and Afghanistan, including U.S. interests therein.”
Iran will remain the most
prominent state sponsor of terrorism and an adversary in the Middle East,
especially in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, Coats said. “We also assess that Iran will
continue to develop military capabilities that threaten U.S. forces and U.S.
allies in the region,” he added.
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