Counterterrorism magazine's website published my Threatcon column today.
Threatcon: The Threats Facing the Upcoming Presidential Election
By Paul Davis
The
upcoming presidential election will no doubt be contested hotly by both sides
with accusations of voter fraud, political dirty tricks and illegal political
contributions.
And like 2016, there will be accusations of
foreign election interference.
On August 7th, William Evanina (seen in the above photo). the director of
the U.S. National Counterintelligence and Security Center (NCSC), offered an
election threat update to the public.
Evanina had previously pledged to provide
unclassified overview of foreign threats to the 2020 election.
“Today, we are making good on that promise by
sharing additional information with the public on the intentions and activities
of our adversaries with respect to the 2020 election,” Evanina said.
The NCSC stated that prior to the 2020 U.S. elections,
foreign states will continue to use covert and overt influence measures in
their attempts to sway U.S. voters’ preferences and perspectives, shift U.S.
policies, increase discord in the United States, and undermine the American
people’s confidence in the democratic process. According to the NCSC, these
foreign states may also seek to compromise election infrastructure for a range
of possible purposes, such as interfering with the voting process, stealing
sensitive data, or calling into question the validity of the election results. .
The NCSC is primarily concerned about the ongoing
and potential activity by China, Russia, and Iran.
The NCSC stated that China prefers that President
Trump – whom Beijing sees as unpredictable – does not win reelection. “China
has been expanding its influence efforts ahead of November 2020 to shape the
policy environment in the United States, pressure political figures it views as
opposed to China’s interests and deflect and counter criticism of China.
Although China will continue to weigh the risks and benefits of aggressive
action, its public rhetoric over the past few months has grown increasingly
critical of the current Administration’s COVID-19 response, closure of China’s
Houston Consulate, and actions on other issues. For example, it has harshly
criticized the Administration’s statements and actions on Hong Kong, TikTok,
the legal status of the South China Sea, and China’s efforts to dominate the 5G
market. Beijing recognizes that all of these efforts might affect the
presidential race.”
The NCSC stated that Russia is using a range of
measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as
an anti-Russia “establishment.” “This is consistent with Moscow’s public
criticism of him when he was Vice President for his role in the Obama
Administration’s policies on Ukraine and its support for the anti-Putin
opposition inside Russia. For example, pro-Russia Ukrainian parliamentarian
Andriy Derkach is spreading claims about corruption – including through
publicizing leaked phone calls – to undermine former Vice President Biden’s
candidacy and the Democratic Party. Some Kremlin-linked actors are also seeking
to boost President Trump’s candidacy on social media and Russian television.”
The NCSC stated that Iran seeks to undermine U.S.
democratic institutions, President Trump, and to divide the country in advance
of the 2020 elections. “Iran’s efforts along these lines probably will focus on
on-line influence, such as spreading disinformation on social media and
recirculating anti-U.S. content. Tehran’s motivation to conduct such activities
is, in part, driven by a perception that President Trump’s reelection would
result in a continuation of U.S. pressure on Iran in an effort to foment regime
change.”
You
can read the rest of the column via the below link:
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